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Prediction for CME (2025-11-05T10:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-11-05T10:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/42425/-1
CME Note: CME first seen in real time to the E in STEREO A COR2 starting at 2025-11-05T10:53Z. CME is also seen in GOES CCOR-1 as a halo with the bulk to the E. CME was missed by SOHO LASCO C2/C3 in real time due to a scheduled gap between downlink periods. The CME is most likely associated with a long-duration M7.4 class flare from AR 14274 (N24E47) that peaked at 2025-11-05T11:19Z. The flare and associated eruption can be seen across GOES SUVI wavelengths but is best visible in GOES SUVI 304.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-11-07T04:48Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-11-07T00:00Z
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)
Prediction Method Note:

KSWC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7e
Resolution: low (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a5b1
WSA version: 2.2


CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:2025-11-05T14:01Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 1223
Longitude (deg): -30
Latitude (deg): 5
Half-angular width (deg): 41

Notes: by Soojeong Jang

Lead Time: 26.90 hour(s)
Difference: 4.80 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by RWC KSWC (KASA) on 2025-11-06T01:54Z

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